34% of Russian strategic missile bombers at main airfields damaged in Ukrainian drone operation, SBU reports

That's good to hear. The former is big news, the second option would be not nearly as relevant.

The estimate is 130-140 aircraft existed in the entire fleet, so sounds like the former.

Yeah, but the wording is weird. "34% of cruise missile bombers in key Russian airbases"

Does that mean "34% of all Russian cruise missile bombers were destroyed by hitting those sitting in key Russian airbases" or does that mean "34% of the Russian cruise missile bombers that were currently present in these specific key Russian airbases were destroyed"?

That's two very different statements with very different meanings.

Or Putin dies of natural causes. Which isn't too farfetched. Then the oligarchs find themselves a Deng Xiaoping-like figure who says "ok, all that was bad, let's do something else".

Probably, Russia will have to face the facts that they can't build their own fighter jets, bombers, tanks, or fighting ships larger than a destroyer anymore. Not on the scale they need. Even if you assume some of the designs they're putting out are good (a big assumption), they can't possibly build them at scale. China is sitting right over there with the factories for those things. Xi Jinping will be happy to take their check, but will make sure it clears first.

Most likely ends when Putin loses the loyalty of the top brass and oligarchal mobsters. This attack goes a long way to having the question being asked, surely there has already been hushed tones, if this is the fight they want to ruin Russia for. They have been successful in terms of land gains, not to any great value - ~20% after 12 years is embarrassing. They have lost a lot of goodwill, marketability, economic growth not to mention brain drain, population etc., and they are now facing budget cuts because of oil prices.

By every account I've read from both sides, seems pretty fucking successful.

Awesome.

"Dozens of long range bombers destroyed"


A few years before WWI, Russia had a disastrous war against the Japanese, whom they had considered an inferior, small opponent that would be defeated quickly.

Time is a flat circle.

TY!

tho no mention of vladivostok in that link, which I think was the purpose of the person I replied to

lots of shit behind paywalls :|

TWZ has some excellent coverage of the event with nary a paywall.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-we-know-about-ukraines-mass-drone-assault-on-russian-bombers

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-31/ukraine-strikes-russian-target-in-far-east-before-planned-talks

https://medium.com/the-dock-on-the-bay/ukraines-special-forces-attack-a-military-target-in-vladivostok-6-800-km-from-ukraine-ed5ade3ecdfb

lots of shit behind paywalls :|

According to a Kyiv Independent SBU source, first-person-view (FPV) drones were covertly transported deep into Russian territory and hidden inside trucks before being launched against four major airfields.

Holy shit that's embarrassing. I mean, those operatives are going to have to flee to Japan to in order to get home, but wow. That's incredible.

Did they hit that city in the same operation? Care to share any sources?

they also hit vladivostok.

on the other side of the continent. all the way from europe to the end of asia.

SLAVA UKRAINE, goddamn

The north african migrant crisis is a direct result of european countries among others fucking up africa and the middle east. Doubling the military budget has the potential to make thing even worst.

Doubling the already over the top european military budget isn't going to fix any of the things in your first list.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest_military_expenditures

If european countries are concerned with USA instead of doubling their military budget they can simply cut and close the thousands USA military facilities all over europe.

You keep repeating the same talking points. That doesn't make them any more true. How boring of you.

What would change without having the weapons? Nothing, other than the EU being a soft target for rivaling power blocks, inviting more war into Europe. Look at poor Ukraine. Putler thought them weak and attacked. Same power dynamics since the dawn of man.

You should also keep in mind that the EU is a supra-national federalist construct. So a sudden and all-encompassing power grab of the executive branch by the authoritarians - like the one in the US - simply isn't possible due to all participating nations still being sovereign and having their own military.

And what about US aggression towards parts of the EU like Greenland? You sure you want to decrease military spending against an increasingly facist super power right on your doorstep that has already openly stated to be very much interested in forcefully attaining your overseas territory? I don’t think so.

The US has more than a thousand military facilities all over europe, if they are your concern the best way to defend against them is indeed cuts.

Pacifism, unfortunately, is dead in this new age of multilaterlism and worldwide resurging authoritarianism.

Don't say nonsense please, if you are concerned with authoritarianism you want to cut the military budget to 0 so that no authoritarian ruler can use it.

>Pacifism, unfortunately, is dead in this new age of multilaterlism and worldwide resurging authoritarianism.

Great, let's spend the budget in weapons right before the far right authoritarians reach all governments in Europe! Can't see that going wrong! After all, Europe has never done anything bad militarily!

And what about US aggression towards parts of the EU like Greenland? You sure you want to decrease military spending against an increasingly facist super power right on your doorstep that has already openly stated to be very much interested in forcefully attaining your overseas territory? I don't think so. Pacifism, unfortunately, is dead in this new age of multilaterlism and worldwide resurging authoritarianism.

but not as expensive as Russia invading.

Given ukraine managed to wipe 34% of their strategic missile bombers with a drone operation it sounds like there's room for cuts

I agree that Russia wouldn't stand a chance against NATO, but that's because NATO is well funded. Spending money on the military is expensive, but not as expensive as Russia invading.

They can launch the missiles from the smaller fighters too. And if they win the war and gain ground then they can build more planes and buy some from China.

The threats used as a leverage to increase the already high military budget of the european union countries are about a widespread invasion of europe and attack to nato.

Ukraine is part of Europe

It didn't need to be far.

Artillery range is around 70km. You need to get that close to the southern most road along the coast into Crimea, and a little more for padding some defense. Now you can turn that road and anything on it into rubble whenever you want.

Ukraine got within a few km of doing that at some areas.

The Kerch Strait Bridge could be hit whenever by a missile. Ukraine had already hit it by then.

There's a port at Sevestapol. It's also been hit by Ukranian missiles before, and even if not, it's not enough on its own.

Airplanes expend lots of fuel for not much cargo. You're not going to supply Crimea that way.

There would be no logistical options left for Russia. Holding those couple of km more would starve it out. Only question is if Putin tries to hang on out of stubbornness.

The Ukrainians were far from cutting off Crimea in 2022. They barely made it like 5-10 kilometres? And unfortunately, the area they recaptured is being slowly grounded away by Russian counterattacks in the past two years. The Ukrainians were hoping that Russia at the time haven't learned their lesson and could replicate Ukrainian rapid offensive in Kharkiv in autumn of 2021.

The surprise Ukrainian offensive into Kursk proved you can hide your intentions. It isn't like Ukraine haven't learned their lesson beforehand. Speaking of which, the incursion wasn't told to the White House either when Biden was president.

The 2022 offensive failed because there wasn't enough support. Ukraine was saying they needed X tanks, shells, guns, whatever from the West, and they actually got around X/3. Even with that, they very nearly made it far enough that Crimea would have been logistically cut off. Russia would have either needed to come to terms or else Crimea literally and metaphorically starves.

There isn't really a way to hide what you're doing. You have to build up forces at your bases, move a lot of material, etc. The timing wasn't going to be a surprise, either, because local seasonal weather changes put a demand on when you do things.

Oh yeah. The US leadership is filled with Russian assets and Putin playthings.

I don't think it's because Trump is a Russian asset which is why they haven't told the White House, but because Ukrainians have had bad experience with their plans being leaked before. The 2023 Ukrainian offensive failed because the Russian knew they were coming, and everyone including the media and their mothers shouted it across the rooftops for weeks. Back then, I thought "isn't this a bad idea to report it on the media"? But then I am an armchair analyst so I guess the Ukrainians and Bidem knew what they were doing (turns out they didn't). Since then, Ukrainians choose to hide their intentions.

Edit: incorrect year

They already are. So what is the next step after?

The U.S. doesn't even talk big on Ukraine anymore. Proposing a joke of a "peace plan" where Russia gets their land and we get their minerals. Insulting Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The Ukrainians kept us in the dark on this one so Trump wouldn't do any stupid shit like when he blabbed to Putin and got all our informants killed. Trusting the U.S. to do anything constructive on Ukraine would be a fool's errand.

The US is a lost cause, simping for Putin for the foreseeable future.

yes, but it is better that Ukraine isn't using US weapons or depends on intel or targetting info when destroying a third of russia's bomber nuclear triad (which russia already used to attack Ukraine anyway).

Russia is already sending children in their military and uses donkeys and stolen civilian vehicles for supply.

The fate of ukraine is in our hands, but its their decision what they will give to resist the orks.

You forget that russia is deeply corrupt. This type of operation can be done again.

Getting some inspiraton from hogans heros is good /j

i take hope from the fact that since the war begun people have been saying ukraine has no chance, and yet here we are with ukraine still existing and independent… i guess when you’re defending your home you can pull some pretty impressive manoeuvres out of nowhere that people hadn’t accounted for

Russia is so incompetent I'm sure Ukraine could execute something similar several times again.

It's a fake Starbucks like the fake McDonald's apparently

What is less conspicuous than sleeping right next to your enemy.

Starbucks still operate in Russia?

They're heavy strategic bombers, like a full size commercial jet, they don't have a lot of them and they could use more. So yes, these were definitively used to bomb Ukraine.

What does it matter in the end? Russia doesn't say these bombers and only these bombers are for bombing Ukraine and if they get destroyed we'll stop bombing Ukraine even though we have other bombers available. They'll use whatever capacity they have, so any reduction in that capacity is a win.

If a Republican crippled a historic enemies military without a single soldier dying and did so using a fraction of the US military budget they would put him on Mt. Rushmore, but since Biden did it they, and the entire media apparatus, called him a bumbling fool and senile.

Just like how Reagan gets credit for 'ending the Cold War' when a ton of the legwork for that was put in place by Kennedy, Eisenhower, (yes Nixon too), and LBJ and Carter.

Biden has flaws, and I wish Biden really did more to help Ukraine in the beginning of the war, but him helping out and clearing so much equipment to them was a genuinely good thing that he did while in office.

Whatever weapons and money everyone is sending Ukraine, double it.

Freaking truth.

Side thought purely as a hypothetical from a civilian standpoint: I'm wondering if it's too paranoid to consider figuring out how to smoothly use Monero for sending donations.

I'm wondering if records of sending aid to Ukraine will be the newest excuse to get disappeared by goons in the US, the same way they've been crushing the Constitutional rights of anyone who prominently voices anti-zionist dissent.

Apparently the FOB for the Ukrainians was next door to a FSB post

They shared the same Starbucks

Ukraine did this with $500 drones. No infantry. No tanks or fighter jets.

Ukraine doesn't have the numbers to continue this war, less they want to start drafting 18 year olds.

As much as I want to send them more money and arms, I want a ceasefire and end. Ukraine has lost enough, and they deserve peace.

I doubt Russia will agree to any peace talks though. And it'll be tough to replicate Operation Spiderweb now that Russia knows how it was conducted.

Such a tragic fucking state of affairs

Are we sure that these were the aircrafts shooting the bombs?

Dont get me wrong, i hope they were and every Russian plane that goes up in flames is good, i just want to be really happy if there is some proof those were the actual planes that Ruzzia was using.

And crash his wartime economy? Well, yes, he does have the choice of blowing his own brains out, but most of us don't consider that a choice.

Putin falling out of a bunker window would be a great meme of the year.

Why is there a window in a bunker? Why not?

Like all the hidden Saddam diagram memes but even better. Lol!

Think of the memes!

To be honest plenty of bad things happened to a country leader that lost a war outside of a bunker.

Just look at Mussolini's death

He could just hide in a bunker! Nothing bad have ever happened to a country leader that lost a war in a bunker! /s

I see the two as linked (stopping the war and him falling out of that dangerous window of his) so he has every incentive to keep the war going

Doesn't mean he can't do it. It's not like he's concerned about what happens after his death

He could declare victory and go home. Brag that he forced Ukraine into talks and that he stopped Ukraine from joining NATO and got some small land gains.

At this point, Putin *can't* stop. Weird that everyone acts like he has a choice.

Putin committed to this play, and then went all-in when it didn't play. Three years later, Russia is relying on a rickety, unstable, wartime economy, suffering more and more sanctions. If he pulls out, the whole house of cards comes tumbling down, utter ruin. Which would be fine by me. Fuck Russia.

The US keeps their reserve in Arizona but it isnt a quick, easy, or cheap process to reactivate a plane depending on how it is stored. We have pulled two B-52s out of storage in the last decade as replacements after a ground fire and a crash. One took 19 months and the other took 12+ months.

https://www.dla.mil/About-DLA/News/Energy/Article/957538/ghost-rider-in-the-sky-b-52h-departs-tinker-in-historic-flight/

https://theaviationist.com/2020/12/17/wise-guy-is-back-regenerated-after-10-years-at-the-boneyard-b-52h-flies-again-after-pdm-at-tinker-afb/

Could be. It could also be as simple as using an actual Russian phone, and having an app on the phone that flies the drone.

We don't know, and I don't want to know so they can keep doing it.

But how can Russia jam waves of bodies into an electronic hole?

Totally. This is fucking huge for the war.

The big change will be if they can't fire as many missiles at once then they can't use the saturation technique that lets them get past AA. A bunch of missiles fired over a longer period of time are less effective.

You get it, brother.

This actually has huge implications for the war in general. Russias nuclear triad just had the dick blown off of it,

I'd be willing to wager that this was most, if not all the active bombers being used in the Ukrainian theatre. If they are following a loose rule of 3rds with their birds (deployed and flying missions, being prepped for deployment, shut down receiving repairs/overhauls), this very well could severely limit Russia's ability to keep up their cruise missile bombardment.

If that's the case, that frees up Ukraine to be much more flexible with their air defenses.

Not to mention if they were able to pull off a mission like this, allegedly using cell towers to fly their drones, what's stopping them from doing similar limited missions to tank factories, recruit depots, and other places that are further away from the front? Literally all of these targets now become viable because they will be much less heavily guarded than the nuclear triad bombers.

Protecting those assets pulls material and meat from the front lines, which further helps Ukraine.

I can't help but see this as a massive positive swing in momentum for Ukraine.

Ukrainian AA can't reach these bombers because these were used as launching platforms for long range missiles over Caspian, relocating SAM sites does nothing. Also it's likely that what was hit were good planes, some of which were even fitted with Kh-101 cruise missiles at the time of attack, and part of what is left are planes under maintenance. It could be so that only third or less of long range bombers are usable now, which would most obviously increase wear on them in immediate future

Moving further away likely won’t deter Ukraine. The Russians will need to start surrounding their airfields with a lot more, and better, defensive capabilities. The question is whether they have the ability to do that or not.

I think Ukraine can only pull off a big attack like this a few times. Not because they’re incapable, or Russia, now aware of the method, can defend against it, but because each attack generates data. The more data you have, the greater the ability to analyze and spot patterns, which puts Ukrainian operators at risk.

Although it would be excellent if another attack happened very soon against another relatively irreplaceable Russian asset. But a campaign of smaller scale harassment throughout the country would suffice to harm morale and keep supply constraints, well, constrained.

And to make Russian forces worry that any cargo container within a couple miles of a sensitive area could pull over and have a bunch of drones pop out of it.

Depending on fuel availability and other obligations, it opens them up to some severe implications to enterprising forces. Logistically they must either weaken other theaters (like say Syria or Georgia or Kyrgyzstan) by flying them to replace the lost craft, or simply accept a weakened position with air power over Ukraine. (Assuming all are in service and none are reserve)

Even more so, Russian command will have to gauge if Ukraine is able to replicate this, and how often. If another strike like this is deemed not only possible but imminent, they will have to start using an airbase even further from the front, driving fuel costs up to deliver the same payloads. Additionally, increased flight time means less chance the target will be caught unprepared for your arrival and allows more time to relocate mobile AA to respond to your (now much longer and obvious) flight path.

Edit: The TU-95 (the nuclear capable bigboi) has a fuel range of 15k km (9300mi) so these were already well within range, just flight times will be longer.

Practically not that much, but the point is to inflict huge monetary costs and erode public support among Russians to continue the conflict. So from that perspective this is a pretty good bargaining chip going into further negotiations.

Presumably the other 2/3'rds are operational. *Presumably*.

We'll have to see how much of their previous pace they can keep up. In any case, every military that can, keeps some things in reserve. What's the likelihood that the ones in storage are still there and not gutted for parts that got sold for vodka?

I live in a place full of Russians. Trust me, they know. The official state media tries to cover it up, but it's getting harder and harder. Most Russians know, they just can't talk about it publicly without risking prison. But Putin's days are numbered.

And what you have them know? Putin has prosecuted his propaganda in Russia exactly as he had in the West.

Russians think *any and all* news is bullshit, no source is to be trusted. And look what we have in America today. Huh.

How I wish that the general Russian population would know more about it.

Apparently, the Russians moved a lot of their best bombers far from the front when they realized they were exposed to strikes, so Ukraine hit them with some James Bond, 4D chess operation they’d been planning for a year and a half.

Those bombers had been terrorizing Ukrainian cities, destroying defensive fortifications, and are a key part of the Russian nuclear threat.

Whatever weapons and money everyone is sending Ukraine, double it.

I love the great news of Ukraine beating Putin's sorry behind - and how that development is spreading to many other news sources.

Slava Ukraini!

And a lot of the planes that were hit literally can't be produced in Russia any more, to further rub it in.

It's a weird sensation to stick to this as someone so far away, but I feel plain proud of all the Ukrainian forces that made this happen so successfully.

They could just leave and this would all stop. Putins *removed* ass knows how to stop this.

LMFAO

fuck war planes and fuck Russian Bombers especially

killing a war plane guarantees you a place in Valhalla BTW, but you'd better hurry up, killing war planes is all the rage right now

Just as well they didn't let the US (AKA as Putin's *removed*) know about it beforehand

"Russian war machine, go fuck yourself."

Even if it wasn't the 40 planes claimed, even if it's only the 5 we saw in the video , this is huge. Now Russia has to move MORE anti air assets, and more men, to these airfields and away from the front. Some bombers will be moved farther away, reducing the pace of operations. And if they have to start building bunkers for their big bombers that's tens of thousands of tons of concrete not going to buildings fortifications on the front lines. Not going to road repair. Not going to factories. And that's thousands of workers not doing other, more productive things. The success of this operation cannot be overstated

Good.

I very much hope Ukraine's reported success is as good as they claim. Deleting 1/3 of the Russia's bomber capacity against Ukraine is nice.

This moment in history is akin to the introduction of airplanes and aircraft carriers. It's a whole paradigm shift. The future of war is drones. God help us if WW3 breaks out.

Fuck yeah!

If usa would supply ukraine with weapons, instead of talking big, we would see a lot more destroyed russian weapons

When you phrase losses of aircraft in percentages of your fleet, you're talking about a disaster.

A few more of those, and Russia has to walk and throw stones.

their ICBM fleet is poorly maintained - both land based and submarine launched; this event is a solid kick in the strategic nutsack.

SLAVA UKRAINE!

More!

Glory to our Ukranian HEROESSSS!!!!!! 👑🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻🙌🏻 Insane, utmost respect!!!!!!

The more Ukraine do that, the less *everyone else* have to do it. Good.

How much will having only 2/3 of their bomber fleet constrain Russia’s ability to wage war?

Genuine question, what is the end game objectively do you think? Rdors Russia retreat unable to carry the war and then recoil into a depression economy? I seriously don't see Ukraine slowing down at all. The longer this goes on it seems like Russia takes one step and Ukraine takes 1.2 steps forward.

That's more than 1/3rd of ALL of their aircraft, holy shit. This just makes it insanely difficult for Russia to save face. ANY truck could be holding hundreds of suicide drones deep into Russian territory. The Russian authorities are gonna be so paranoid they won't be able to coordinate anything.

It's really good news that a military state lost their war assets used to wage war (they should have never been built to begin with) but i'm gonna use this thread to highlight something else:

If 34% of russian strategic missile bombers got destroyed in a ukrainian drone operation, EU governments are simply lying when they say russia is going to invade europe and that we must stack more billions on the ones we already spend in war.