US nuclear weapons in Poland would be 'deterrent' for Russia

there's a little treaty about it called NNPT

but as we all know by now,


It would be cool if European countries joined together to make a European nuclear force (starting with French and British nukes I guess, and then they can pool money to fund further weapons development).

Maybe this will happen in the future, but it might be a while until then.

That's a big *[citation needed]*. Trump is a narcissist, a would-be legacy builder, and he's enormously jealous that Obama (unjustifiedly) got the Nobel peace prize. He wants that thing too. The unfortunate bit is that Trump does not understand human rights or modernity or synergstic relationships. The other thing is that Trump is a bully and a coward.

What I'd buy is that Trump would not defend Poland in the slightest and just move US troops in Europe back to the US, especially in the face of a Russian attack.

they also don’t like EU states as a matter of principle

I think at least every German understood that back then. Also on r/Europe there were many polish posters (or russian trolls posing as them) who defended every braindead PiS-Take to the Death (like claiming Germany did poison the Oder river, when one of their nepotism plant owner friend did)

they are so fucking bad at diplomacy they might genuinely not see it coming. they would be mightly surprised tho

you know how libertarians are all about going against The Man but not because they think that capitalism is fundamentally fucked up, but because they think they should be on top? PiS is a bit like that in relation to russia. they fucking hate russians but they want to, and did when they had opportunity, all the kinds of henious abuses of power like russian government does: complete control of media and constant flood of party propaganda, surveillance and intimidation of opposition, election interference, packing courts and all institutions (including government-owned companies) they can lay their hands on with party loyalists, and also they don't really like EU since EU objected to all the previous shit, but also because they're too nationalist for EU (but they like money). in fact the kind of bullshit that republicans pull right now is PiS wet dream, and we're still dealing with fallout of their previous attempts. they even sent one of their people to trump's inauguration (Dominik Tarczyński)

i think that current MFA, Radosław Sikorski, put it well (in 2014):

>In another part of the leaked conversation, Sikorski was reported to have said: "The Polish-American alliance is worthless. It is even harmful because it creates a false sense of security for Poland."[68] In the fragment of the record Sikorski said: "We're going to antagonize Germany and Russia, and they will think that everything is ok because we have given a blowjob to the Americans. Losers. Total losers." Sikorski stated later that in the actual conversation, he was predicting what Polish foreign policy would look like under a Law and Justice government.[69]

there's also a part where it's likely that minister of defense in their govt was a russian plant, or at least had a handler:

>In October 2024, a special commission investigating Russian and Belarusian influences in Poland accused Macierewicz of undertaking decisions as defence minister that weakened Poland's defence capability, including canceling plans to purchase tanker aircraft for the country's F-16 fighter jet fleet without analysis or consultation, which the commission attributed to Macierewicz's "personal aversion to partners in the EU". It also accused him of weakening Poland's intelligence capabilities by closing down 10 out of the Polish intelligence service's 15 regional bureaus in 2017

not only they don't like EU, they also don't like EU states as a matter of principle and together with gorging republican balls this gives outcomes like disturbingly high % of weapons procurement from americans, even at expense of domestic manufacturers. there was a development of guided MLRS going on for 15+ years, but they gutted it and ordered HIMARS instead, for example

If the US said outright that it sees Russia as its partner for regional stability, and Poland as falling within the Russian sphere, would PiS snap out of it, or come up with some rationalisation for why this isn’t the 19th-century Russian empire but is preferable to EU gay pride parades everywhere or something?

the entire PiS security strategy is to be the most loyal lapdog of americans. this is why it's physically impossible to stop PiS top reps from gorging republucan balls, current MFA even got covertly recorded saying just that 10 years ago

no, fuck that, french/british nukes and domestic conventional weapons will have to do

I don't know, isn't Russia and the US the same thing now?

No it would be a stupid move.

French Nukes would be smarter

Trump made it pretty clear he'd never bother defending Europe, so the deterrence value of their weapons on European soil is zero. If anything, they could be used as a deterrent against Europe to not get involved if the US attacks Greenland or Canada. So no, I don't think it would be a good move.

How about Polish nukes on Polish soil? Trump is sooner going to launch a nuke at Warsaw then his buddy Putin in Moscow.

Outgoing and absent polish president is trying to stay relevant by trying to get into good graces with more successful far right politicians. JD Vance already laughed this proposal off.

The only way for Poland to have a chance at obtaining nuclear deterrence is cooperating with other countries bordering Russia that have strong interest in a program that’s independent from US or Western Europe which is disinterested because they can afford to be. Nordic+Baltic+Poland+Ukraine alliance is the only safe way to move forward. Nordics might not like more authoritarian turns in Poland and Ukraine but they can treat us like they treat Turkey - a necessary evil that provides army with the meat.

Ukraine and Isreal examples show the world why nuclear deterrence works and we don’t have a choice.